Global temperature likely to cross 1.5°C threshold within 5 years: WMO
The world’s record-breaking heat in 2024 is just the beginning, as global temperatures are expected to keep rising.
A new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns there is an 80% likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
According to the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, global temperatures over the next five years are projected to range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). In 2024 alone, the average global temperature was estimated to be 1.34°C to 1.41°C above that benchmark. For the 20-year period between 2015 and 2034, the average is expected to settle at around 1.44°C higher.
The report indicates an 86% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one of the coming five years. There’s even a small — but notable — 1% chance that warming could briefly go beyond 2°C. Additionally, there’s a 70% likelihood that the average temperature for the entire five-year period will surpass 1.5°C, according to UN news.
However, the WMO emphasized that this does not mean the Paris Agreement target of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C has been breached, since that benchmark is based on 20-year averages. Still, the agency warned that these short-term spikes are stark indicators of a deepening climate crisis.
The forecast also highlights changes in regional rainfall patterns. Wetter-than-usual conditions are expected in areas such as the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia, while the Amazon is likely to experience continued drought.
The Arctic is heating up even faster than the rest of the planet. Over the next five winters (November to March), Arctic temperatures are expected to be 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average — more than three and a half times the projected global rise. Melting sea ice in key regions like the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas is expected to persist, accelerating sea level rise and disrupting global weather systems.
The WMO concluded with a call for urgent climate action to avert even more dangerous warming and to keep long-term global temperature increases within the 1.5°C limit.